Economy & Macro
The economy that kept working
After a severe contraction in 2022, the Ukrainian economy returned to growth while the war continued. The composition of that growth is more interesting than the…
Economy & Macro
Growth, inflation, the hryvnia, budgets and the macro-financial programmes that keep Ukraine's economy running.
Economy & Macro
Reserves, and the return of a buffer
Foreign exchange reserves are an abstraction until you are importing on credit terms, at which point they are the reason your supplier extends them.
Economy & Macro
The first year of full-scale war: an economic assessment
Output down by roughly a third, half the budget funded from abroad, the energy system under sustained attack, and an economy that nonetheless kept functioning. What…
Economy & Macro
The slow construction of a capital market
Ukraine has a functioning government bond market and almost no equity market. The asymmetry is not an accident and it tells you what infrastructure exists.
Economy & Macro
Running a macroeconomy under fire
Ukraine's central bank and finance ministry faced a set of textbook-defying conditions in 2022 and produced a stabilisation that most forecasts said was impossible.
Economy & Macro
How the shock propagated: the war's economic effects beyond Ukraine
Four transmission channels carried the 2022 shock outward — energy, food, migration and defence spending — and each one worked on a different timescale with different…
Economy & Macro
Hedging a hryvnia exposure
A company earning in hryvnia and owing in euros has a problem that arithmetic alone will not solve. The available tools are limited and worth knowing…
Economy & Macro
What things actually cost here
A practical comparison of the input costs that determine whether a manufacturing operation makes sense in Ukraine rather than in Poland, Romania or Turkey.
Economy & Macro
Affordable loans and the small companies that used them
A state programme that subsidised interest and shared credit risk moved a large amount of lending to companies that banks would otherwise not have touched.
Economy & Macro
The IT sector that grew while everything else argued
Software services became one of Ukraine's largest exports during a period when very little else was going well. The reasons are worth understanding because they are…
Economy & Macro
What Ukraine actually produces
The economy is usually described by whatever sector is in the news. The composition of output is a more useful starting point and it has shifted…
Economy & Macro
The pension question, honestly stated
The arithmetic of a pay-as-you-go pension system with a falling contributor base has only three solutions, and all of them are unpopular.
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