Economy & Macro
Two currency crises, three shocks and a war, on one page
Two currency crises, three external shocks and a war. What survived all of them is a small number of institutions, and that is the story.
Economy & Macro
Growth, inflation, the hryvnia, budgets and the macro-financial programmes that keep Ukraine's economy running.
Economy & Macro
The economics of joining, from a company balance sheet
Accession is discussed politically and experienced financially. What it does to a company is change the cost of capital and the value of an asset.
Economy & Macro
Reading a year ahead in a country under pressure: a method rather than a forecast
Annual outlooks for a country in this position are worth very little as predictions and quite a lot as frameworks. What follows is the framework…
Economy & Macro
What reconstruction spending does to an economy
Large inflows of reconstruction money are not simply good news for the receiving economy. Managing them badly produces inflation, an overvalued currency and a distorted labour…
Economy & Macro
The energy transition and the industrial cost base
A carbon border mechanism at the European frontier changes the economics of Ukrainian steel and cement, and the response has to be technical rather than rhetorical.
Economy & Macro
The diaspora as an investor, not just a sender
Ukrainians abroad send money home in enormous volumes and invest at home in very small ones. Closing that gap is a policy question with a large…
Economy & Macro
The third year: an economy that learned to function under conditions it was never designed for
Three years in, the striking thing is not the damage but the adaptation. Businesses operate through scheduled outages, exports move by routes that did not exist…
Economy & Macro
A banking system that made money in wartime
Ukrainian banks have been profitable through the war. That fact is counterintuitive, entirely explicable, and raises a legitimate policy question.
Economy & Macro
War risk insurance and the price of moving goods
Cargo does not move without cover. Rebuilding war risk insurance for the Black Sea was a financial engineering problem and it determined how much grain got…
Economy & Macro
The labour market got tight, and wages moved
For most of the last two decades Ukraine had more workers than jobs. That reversed, and the consequences run through the whole economy.
Economy & Macro
The Ukraine Facility and predictable money
What multi-year financing gives that emergency aid cannot is not more money. It is a number a ministry can put in a four-year plan.
Economy & Macro
A year in review, and the one ahead: what the second full year settled
The second full year of the war was the one in which the temporary arrangements became permanent ones. Reviewing it is mostly an exercise in noticing…
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