Who will actually build it

Every reconstruction estimate is expressed in money. Money is not the scarce input. Construction capacity is.

The workforce arithmetic

Construction is labour-intensive and its workforce was disproportionately male and of military age. Mobilisation and emigration together removed a large share of it, at exactly the moment demand rose.

The result is visible in wages: construction pay rose faster than almost any other sector, and firms still cannot staff projects.

What can be done about it

Train faster, which requires the vocational reform discussed elsewhere in this record and delivers in two years rather than two months.

Recruit differently — women in construction trades, older workers, and returning migrants, whose foreign experience is often superior to what they left with.

Build in ways that use less labour: prefabrication, modular components manufactured in a factory and assembled on site, and standardised designs that do not require bespoke work.

And bring in foreign contractors with their own crews for the largest projects, which is realistic and politically sensitive and will happen regardless.

Materials

Cement, aggregate, steel and timber demand will rise sharply. Domestic capacity exists but not at reconstruction scale, and expanding it is itself an investment opportunity with guaranteed local demand.

The point

A reconstruction plan without a workforce and materials plan attached is a financing document. The physical constraint is the real one and it is being addressed later than it should have been.