What four years of sanctions actually achieved
An honest assessment of the sanctions regime has to separate what it was designed to do from what people hoped it would do.
After four years the sanctions regime can be assessed, and doing it honestly requires separating three different questions.
Did it stop the war
No. No sanctions regime in history has stopped a war a state was determined to prosecute, and anyone who promised this was overstating. That expectation, widely held in 2022, has done more damage to public confidence in the instrument than any of its actual shortcomings.
Did it raise the cost
Yes, measurably. Procurement runs through more intermediaries at worse terms. Technology arrives older, slower and dearer. Access to capital markets, Western financial services and advanced components is materially constrained. Revenue is realised at a discount through longer and riskier chains.
None of that is decisive on its own. All of it compounds over time, and the effect is cumulative rather than immediate.
Did it hold together
Yes, and this is the finding that surprised most observers. Sixteen packages agreed unanimously by twenty-seven governments with divergent interests, sustained over four years, under continuous pressure from affected industries at home.
The honest conclusion
Sanctions are a slow instrument of attrition, not a decisive one of coercion. Judged as the first, the record is substantial. Judged as the second, it will always disappoint — and the second was never a realistic standard.
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