Getting private money into the room

The assessed cost of Ukraine's recovery exceeds what donor budgets can plausibly supply. That is not a controversial statement; it is arithmetic. Which means private investment is not an optional supplement — it is the majority of the eventual answer.

What investors actually require

Not enthusiasm, and not conferences. Four specific things: insurable risk, a legal system in which a contract can be enforced, an exit route for capital, and a partner with a credible balance sheet alongside them.

By 2024 all four had been worked on directly rather than discussed in general terms, which is the difference between an investment agenda and a communications exercise.

The instruments

Guarantees from multilateral institutions covering political and war risk. Co-investment by development banks, whose participation both funds a project and signals that it has been examined. First-loss facilities, in which public money absorbs the initial tranche of any loss, changing the risk profile enough for a commercial lender to enter.

That last instrument is the significant one. It converts a project nobody will finance into one several institutions will.

Where investment actually went

Agriculture and food processing, logistics, energy — particularly distributed generation with contracted offtake — and building materials, which have guaranteed local demand for two decades.

What I would tell an investor

The sectors are legible and the returns are real. The gate is insurance and the timetable is longer than the brochure suggests. Anyone entering with a two-year horizon should not enter. Anyone entering with a fifteen-year one is looking at one of the more interesting propositions in Europe.