Turkey and Ukraine: two Black Sea economies and a trade relationship with an unusual shape

Turkey and Ukraine are the two largest economies on the Black Sea, they are separated by a short sea crossing, and they produce almost entirely different things. That combination is the whole explanation for a trade relationship that has grown steadily for two decades.

What moves south

Grain, above all. Turkey is a major importer of wheat and maize, much of it for milling and for the feed industry, and Ukraine is among the closest large suppliers. Sunflower oil and oilseeds follow the same route.

Metals and metal products, particularly semi-finished steel for Turkish rerolling and fabrication.

Iron ore, chemicals and fertiliser inputs.

The common feature is bulk commodities moving a short distance by sea, which is the cheapest freight configuration that exists. Geography does most of the work in this relationship.

What moves north

Textiles and clothing, where Turkish producers have scale, design capability and a fast replenishment cycle that suits the Ukrainian retail market.

Machinery and equipment, particularly for food processing, packaging, plastics and construction materials — the same mid-market industrial equipment segment that Italian producers compete in.

Chemicals, plastics and processed food products.

Vehicles and components, buses and commercial vehicles among them.

Construction materials and services, where Turkish contractors have a long regional track record.

Why the relationship is structurally sound

Complementarity is the first reason. Ukraine sells what Turkey needs to import and buys what Turkey manufactures. Neither is competing for the other's domestic market in any significant category, which removes the source of most trade friction.

Freight economics is the second. A short sea route means the transport cost is a small share of delivered value, which makes trade viable in categories where a longer haul would not be.

The third is that both economies have experienced sharp currency movements, and businesses on both sides are experienced at operating through them. That is an underrated form of compatibility — a supplier who has been through a devaluation understands what a customer going through one needs.

The war period

Trade continued through the closure of the ports, redirected overland and through the Danube, and recovered when the maritime corridor opened. Turkish construction and engineering capability is directly relevant to reconstruction, and the logistics relationship gives it a practical advantage in delivering there.

What it indicates going forward

The Black Sea is becoming a more important transit space rather than a less important one. The Trans-Caspian corridor from Central Asia terminates on its eastern shore. Ukrainian and Romanian export capacity is on the northern and western shores. Turkish ports and the straits control the connection to the Mediterranean.

Any long-term view of regional logistics has to account for that geometry, and the Turkey–Ukraine leg of it is the one with the most established commercial traffic already running along it.

For a company in either country, the practical implication is that the counterpart market is closer, cheaper to serve and more complementary than most alternatives at a similar distance — and that this remains true across a wider range of conditions than most trading relationships survive.

Related in this archive

• New air routes as a leading indicator of where trade is going
• The Turkey–Ukraine free trade agreement: why a decade, and what it changes
• Ukraine in the Baltic and Nordic business conversation: a different set of assumptions
• Ukraine Annual Review 2019: the strongest position since 2007

I read the structural soundness of this relationship not from the figures but from the crises: neither in 2014 nor in 2022 did the flow stop, only the route changed. The two economies complement each other not because one depends on the other but because what each needs at any moment is different. Relationships of that kind outlive politics.