Airports and the aviation sector on hold

Ukrainian civil aviation went from a growing sector with expanding regional airports to zero commercial flights, overnight. Restarting is a sequence, and the order is not obvious.

What has to be in place

Airspace safe enough that a civil regulator will permit operations and an insurer will cover them. That is the gate, and it is not decided by the aviation sector.

Air traffic control, which requires trained controllers and functioning systems. Controllers must maintain currency; a licence lapses, and a service that has not operated for years cannot restart on a Monday.

Airport infrastructure: runways, lighting, navigation aids, fire cover, security screening, and terminal systems. Some airports have been damaged; all have been idle, and idle infrastructure deteriorates.

And aircraft. Ukrainian carriers dispersed or lost fleet capacity, and rebuilding an airline is a capital-intensive undertaking.

What has already been done

The regulatory framework, through the aviation agreement with the European Union described elsewhere in this record. That means when flights resume, the market is already open and the safety rules already aligned — which removes years of negotiation from the restart.

What restarting would change

A great deal more than convenience. Air connectivity determines where business travel goes, which cities host events, how investors visit, and how a diaspora maintains contact. A country reachable only by a long overland journey is a country fewer people go to.

Of all the infrastructure waiting to restart, aviation is the one with the largest ratio of economic effect to capital required.

Reopening an airport does not end when the runway is ready; it needs insurance, ground handling, spare parts and a passenger willing to trust the timetable. In my own business I have paid for the loss of flights not in fares but in visits postponed. The opening day makes the news; what matters is how many companies are willing, in the six months after it, to plan against a schedule.