The construction workforce question

Reconstruction is constrained by people, and it is worth being specific about which people, because the shortages are not uniform across trades.

Where the shortages are sharpest

Skilled trades with long training requirements: welders certified to structural standards, electricians qualified for industrial work, crane operators, and site engineers who can supervise to a specification. General labour is easier to find; certified skill is not.

Project management is the least discussed shortage and one of the most binding. Someone has to run a site, sequence trades, manage subcontractors and hold a programme, and that is a profession rather than a job title.

Return migration

A large number of Ukrainian construction workers are currently employed in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and elsewhere, in many cases doing more advanced work than they did at home, on modern sites and to European standards.

That is a trained workforce sitting outside the country. Whether it returns depends on wages, housing, safety and — critically — recognition of the qualifications and experience acquired abroad. A worker who would come back but would be treated as unqualified on arrival will not come back.

What would enlarge the pool

Fast-track certification recognising foreign experience. Training places at scale for trades rather than for management. Deliberate recruitment of women into construction trades, which has already begun and needs continuing. And employing veterans, with adaptations where required.

The measure to watch

Certified tradespeople entering the workforce each year, by trade. Not construction output, which reflects money spent. The workforce number tells you what will be possible in three years.

Finding workers and building a crew are not the same thing; what runs a site is five people who know each other. I learned that putting together service and installation teams — gathering people takes weeks and making them work together takes years. Ukraine's workforce problem is discussed as a question of numbers, and on site it is a question of continuity.