2012 in review
Analysis published during 2012.
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St Nicholas Day, 19 December 2012
A greeting for the morning of the small gift, and the one detail children remember for the rest of their lives.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Holodomor Remembrance Day, 24 November 2012
A remembrance message, and why the day is kept at four in the afternoon.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Ukrainian Language Day, 9 November 2012
A greeting for the day, from someone who does business in two languages here.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Ukraine Market Report — Q3 2012
Output contracting, the construction programme finished, an election in October and a currency defence consuming reserves that were no longer being replaced.
Quarterly & Annual Reports -
Elections and investment: what actually changes and what does not
Investors routinely put decisions on hold before a Ukrainian election. Looking at what has actually changed after each one since 2004, that caution has usually been misdirected…
Politics & Governance -
Knowledge Day, 1 September 2012
The first bell, and the first day of a school year.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Independence Day 2012: after the tournament, before the reckoning
Ukraine hosted a European Championship, built four airports and a great deal of road, and finished the summer with growth close to zero and a currency the central…
National Days & Anniversaries -
Chernivtsi and the Habsburg west: why the map still shows
Ukraine's western regions spent the nineteenth century under Vienna rather than Saint Petersburg, and the difference is visible in the building stock, the legal culture and the composition…
Society & Regions -
Ukraine Market Report — Q2 2012
The football tournament in June delivered new airports, stadiums and roads, and a rare demonstration of what Ukraine can build when a deadline is externally imposed and non-negotiable.
Quarterly & Annual Reports -
Ivana Kupala, 7 July 2012
A midsummer greeting, and a note on the one part of the night that has genuinely changed.
National Days & Anniversaries -
After Euro 2012: what the infrastructure was worth, and what it cost
Four airports, four stadiums, several hundred kilometres of road and a renewed intercity rail fleet. The assets are real and will last decades. The procurement was not competitive…
Society & Regions -
Privatisation: three waves, and what each one produced
Vouchers that made everyone a nominal owner of nothing, insider sales that created the industrial groups, and transparent auctions that finally produced market prices. The difference between them…
Economy & Macro -
Constitution Day 2012
A short greeting on a June day, kept short for the usual reason.
National Days & Anniversaries -
The cost of defending a currency peg, and who eventually pays it
Ukraine held the hryvnia at a fixed rate against the dollar for years after the underlying balance had stopped supporting it. The defence was expensive, the adjustment was…
Economy & Macro -
Vyshyvanka Day, 17 May 2012
A greeting for the third Thursday in May, and a word on why the machine-made shirt bothers nobody.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Competing for the same buyer: how mid-sized European exporters position in this market
German, Italian, Polish, Turkish and Nordic suppliers all sell to the same Ukrainian mid-sized manufacturer, and each wins on a different basis. Knowing which basis is yours determines…
Trade & Investment -
Easter, 15 April 2012
An Easter greeting, and a note on the one part of the weekend nobody delegates.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Ukraine Market Report — Q1 2012
Growth stalled as external metal demand weakened, while the exchange rate remained fixed and reserves continued to fall. The quarter is where the 2010–2011 recovery visibly ended.
Quarterly & Annual Reports -
Ukraine and Hungary: transit, energy and a minority question
A short border, a large transit volume, a gas reverse-flow arrangement that mattered enormously, and a Hungarian-speaking community in Transcarpathia that has kept the political relationship difficult for…
Trade & Investment -
Turkey and Ukraine: the shape of a Black Sea trade relationship
Two economies on opposite shores of the same sea, with genuinely complementary structures — one exports raw materials and grain, the other manufactured goods and construction services. The…
Trade & Investment -
International Women's Day 2012
A greeting, and a note on the tulip supply chain that appears on every corner for exactly three days a year.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Who the largest foreign investors actually are, sector by sector
Foreign direct investment in Ukraine concentrated in five sectors and arrived through three or four holding jurisdictions. The pattern tells you more about the operating environment than any…
Trade & Investment -
Ukraine Annual Review 2011: a recovery that did not become a foundation
Two years of growth ended without restoring investment, repairing credit or building domestic demand. The year's most consequential event was a court case that delayed the country's most…
Quarterly & Annual Reports -
Day of Unity, 22 January 2012
A greeting for the day that marks the 1919 act joining the two Ukrainian republics, and what the human chain is actually doing.
National Days & Anniversaries -
Ukraine Market Report — Q4 2011
The year closed with growth intact, external accounts deteriorating, reserves falling and the association agreement initialled but unsigned. Three of those four continued into the following year.
Quarterly & Annual Reports -
Christmas 2012
The seventh of January: twelve dishes, no meat, and the first star. A Christmas greeting from a guest who has learned the order of the evening.
National Days & Anniversaries -
New Year, 1 January 2012
A new year greeting, and a note on the people who work through the night so everyone else can sit down.
National Days & Anniversaries
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