The cohort that has never had a normal year

A pupil leaving school in 2025 began secondary education under pandemic conditions and continued it under attack. They have never had an ordinary academic year, and there is no version of the next decade in which that fact does not matter.

What the assessments show by now

Measurable loss concentrated in foundational literacy and mathematics, with very wide variation driven by circumstance — where a child lived, whether the power stayed on, whether a parent was at home.

The variation is the actionable finding. It means the response is targeted remediation for identified children, not a general lowering of expectations for a whole generation.

The teacher problem

The constraint is increasingly staffing. Teachers have worked through five exceptional years, the profession was not well paid to begin with, and recruitment into it competes with a labour market that is short of people everywhere.

No amount of curriculum reform compensates for not having enough teachers in front of enough classes.

What continues to be funded

Shelter construction, so more schools teach in person. Diagnostic assessment and small-group tutoring. Devices and connectivity for those still remote. And support for the schools abroad teaching Ukrainian children, so that returning is possible without losing a year.

What I would say plainly

This is recoverable and it is not automatic. Learning loss that is measured and addressed while a child is still in school is temporary. Ignored, it becomes the permanent economic profile of a generation, and that bill arrives in the 2040s.